BJP-led NDA will get majority in Lok Sabha Elections, say opinion polls

As per the opinion polls, BJP-led NDA will get the majority in the Lok Sabha Elections.

Written by March 11, 2019 11:08

New Delhi: The Election Commission on Sunday announced the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections. The polls will be held in seven phases and the first phase of polling will take place on April 11 and conclude on May 19.

As per CVoter opinion poll, BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will fall marginally short of a majority in the Lok Sabha but will comfortably form the government with post poll tie-ups. In the eventuality of no Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance of opposition parties) in Uttar Pradesh, the Narendra Modi-led NDA will walk home with over 300 Lok Sabha seats.

Narendra Modi, PM Modi

The poll was conducted in the month of March when the Modi government took the bold decision of carrying out aerial strike on Jaish-E-Mohammad (JeM) terror camp in Pakistan, leading to a new wave of nationalism across the country.

CVoter Opinion Poll seat prediction

The poll has projected that the NDA will get 264 seats while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is expected to reach a tally of 141 and all other parties are expected to get 138 seats.

If there is no Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh, the NDA will get 307 seats and the UPA will settle for 139 and all other parties are expected to get 97.

In terms of seats, the BJP is expected to get 220 seats on its own and the allies are likely to get 44.

If NDA gets into a post poll alliance with parties like YSR Congress, Mizo National Front (MNF), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS), the NDA tally will go up to 301.

In the UPA camp, the Congress is expected to get 86 and other partners will add up another 55.

If the UPA goes for post-poll alliance with parties like All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Left Democratic Front (LDF), MGB (Mahagathbandhan in UP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), its tally will go up to 226.

The Congress will improve its 2014 tally of 44 by getting most of the seats from Assam (7, up from 3 in 2014), Chhattisgarh (5 against only 1 in last election), Kerala (14, one more than 2014), Karnataka (9, same as last time), Jharkhand (5, a seat less than last time), Madhya Pradesh (5, against 3 last time), Maharashtra (7, a marginal improvement from 4 in 2014), Punjab (12 against 3 last time), Rajasthan (5, up from nil in 2014), Tamil Nadu (4 against nil last time) and Uttar Pradesh (4, up from 2).

In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to get 31.1 percent of votes against 30.9 for the UPA. The other parties are likely to get 28 percent.

India TV CNX Opinion Poll prediction

The Narendra Modi-led BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 238 seats, just 13 short of the magical mark, in Lok Sabha 2019 elections. The BJP is likely to lose 44 seats in comparison to 2014 general elections where it bagged 282 seats. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that won 355 seats in 2014 stands to lose 70 seats and end up at 285.

The UPA that won 80 seats in 2014 is likely to win 126 seats, a jump of 46.

India TV CNX party wise projections

BJP 238,
Congress 82,
Trinamool Congress 30, YSR Congress 22, SP 18, BSP 16, DMK 16, AIADMK 12, TRS 14, Left Front 6, JD(U) 12, NCP 7, RJD 8, Shiv Sena 10, BJD 14, smaller parties and Ind 38.

State wise prediction of the India TV-CNX Opinion poll:

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 16, SP 18, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.

Uttarakhand: BJP 5. Total 5.

Rajasthan: BJP 20, Congress 5, Total 25.

West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 30, BJP 12, Total 42.

Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 7, Total 21.

Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29.

Chhattisgarh: BJP 6, Congress 5, Total 11.

Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, AAP 1, BJP 0, Total 13.

Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10.

Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 8, JD(U) 12, Congress 2, LJP 3, Total 40.

Jharkhand: BJP 8, JMM 3, Congress 2, JVM(P) 1. Total 14.

Gujarat : BJP 26, Congress 0. Total 26.

Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4, Congress 0, Total 4.

Maharashtra: BJP 22, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 9, NCP 7, Total 48.

Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0, Total 2.

Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 12, AMMK 2, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-1.Total 39.

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 22, TDP 3, Congress 0, Total 25.

Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17.

Karnataka: BJP 13, Congress 13, JD(S) 2, Total 28.

Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1, Total 20.

Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 1, Congress 2, PDP 1, Total 6.

Assam: BJP 8, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Total 14.

Other North East states: BJP 3, Congress 3, MNF 1, NPP 1, CPI(M) 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.

Delhi: BJP 7, Congress 0, AAP 0. Total 7.

Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.