Narendra Modi-led NDA set to return to power in 2019 but UP alliance may play spoiler: Survey

Written by December 24, 2018 21:24

New Delhi: With just four months to go for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the electioneering is already reaching a feverish pitch with ruling BJP and the opposition parties upping the ante against each other.

Recently concluded Assembly elections have given the much-need thrust to Rahul Gandhi-led Congress. Buoyed with good show and rising popularity chart of Rahul Gandhi, Congress is eagerly forging new alliances with other parties while regional satraps are exploring tie-ups to stay relevant in the epic battle.

OverplNDA government completes 4 years in office
With just four months to go for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the electioneering is already reaching a feverish pitch

Lately, the charisma of BJP’s star campaigner Narendra Modi is seen waning but his political rivals are still no match for him and are lagging far behind.

According to latest survey by ABP News-CVoter, the BJP-led NDA is set to return to power for yet another term with clear majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

Survey Result – without Mahagathbandhan in UP

Survey shows that if Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) of SP-BSP-RLD works out in Uttar Pradesh, it will curtail the BJP tally in the state by 28 seats. If the MGB fails to materialize, then it will be advantage BJP with a tally of 72 seats in the 80-member UP assembly.

Similarly, it’s equation with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra will greatly impact the numbers for BJP.

Survey Result – With Mahagathbandhan in UP

The survey shows BJP emerging as the single largest party in the 2019 Lok Sabha while NDA being the largest pre-poll alliance. Congress is seen faring better but with its other coalition partners, the UPA will be barely touching 170 mark.

As of now, only Bua-Bhatija combo is seen creating hurdles for NDA’s route to power but if they bicker and fail to forge an alliance, the BJP is easily and clearly headed for another term at Centre.

Gains and Losses for BJP, Congress

Congress gains are largely coming from the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Punjab. These are the only states where it has the potential to touch double digits tally.

BJP retains Palghar LS seatBJP’s graph may suffer big fall in Uttar Pradesh but it is seen offsetting those losses (upto a small margin) by making gains in Odisha and North East. BJP is likely to look at a lower tally than in 2014 and consequently it will have weaker bargaining power vis a vis its allies.

The timeline of the survey was 4th week of November – 3rd week of December with over 57,701 respondents spread across Pan India, it said.