Did China play into Pakistan’s hands on Doklam stand-off?
New Delhi: Was Doklam stage-managed by the Chinese to please Pakistan. Former Research and Analysis Wing (RA&W) officer Amar Bhushan says that the problem will not escalate beyond this point. He says that let us face one fact straight and that is there will be no escalation from both sides. He says that the Chinese may have come under pressure from Pakistan to escalate the matter and cause a diversion.
Pakistan is under a lot of pressure, thanks to the aggressive stand taken by our Army. They are facing major losses and the country is facing the heat like it has never done before.
In such a scenario, they looked towards China for support. In my analysis of how the events unfolded at Doklam, it looks like the entire episode was staged to benefit Pakistan.
Pakistan felt that it needed some breathing space after receiving a beating from India and hence may have requested the Chinese to create a diversion, Bhushan also points out. All these borders, be it with Pakistan or China go quiet during the winter and these issues would automatically be resolved then, Bhushan also said.
Bhushan says that since this entire Doklam issue looks staged, there is no chance that it would escalate any further. There would be a resolution soon on the issue or matters would just drag till the winter, he also says.
Meanwhile, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is in China for the BRICS summit and is expected to raise the Doklam standoff. There are a couple of points Doval is likely to raise on the Doklam issue. The first would be to work around a resolution and open a channel for talks.
Bhushan says that Doval would tell the Chinese that the Prime Minister is keen on resolving the crisis. He would suggest for future engagement on both the economic and political level. Both India and China would have be convinced that there is no point in getting bogged over this small bit of area.
China has however made it clear that India will need to first pull out before both nations could work out a resolution. However, Doval is unlikely to agree to that clause. India is likely to agree for a troop withdrawal only if its men are replaced by the Bhutanese forces.