Maha floor test: Will Uddhav govt survive? Rebel Sena MLAs in Mumbai tomorrow; possible scenarios

New Delhi: Uddhav Thackeray-led Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) government, embattled with the revolt of over 37 Shiv Sena MLAs has been told to prove its majority at the floor of house. As the MVA alliance faces floor test in Maharashtra Assembly on Thursday, speculations have begun over its survival & fall.

Mahrashtra governor Bhagat Singh Koshiyari has called a special session of the Assembly on June 30 at 11 AM to conduct floor test for the incumbent govt. Uddhav government has contested this charge and moved Supreme Court over ‘arbitrary & illogical decision of the Governor. The Apex court is likely to hear the plea today evening.

Meanwhile, the rebel faction of Sena led by Eknath Shinde is preparing for Mumbai return to take part in the floor test. The Shinde camp maintains that it has support of over 50 MLAs and they will showcase their strength in Assembly tomorrow.

However, the rebel camp is being cautious on staying united and guarded against any attempt to arm-twisting by the Shiv Sena. The rebel faction has planned to land in Goa, avoiding any direct visit to Maharashtra. As per reports, 71 rooms have been booked in a Goa hotel.

Will Uddhav govt survive floor test

MVA govt has maintained that alliance is steady and there is no threat to it. Rebel camp is steadfast on its demands that it won’t support MVA unless Sena breaks away from ‘unholy’ alliance.

However, there can be 2 scenarios.

If rebel Sena MLAs take part in voting, NDA is likely to get more than 160 votes, a clear majority in the House, however, the incumbent’s strength will fall down to 120. The half-way mark for 287 member Assembly is 144.

If the rebel Sena MLAs stay away from floor test, the halfway mark will be revised from 144 to 125. Even then, the MVA will require support of 4 more MLAs to clear the floor test while NDA will also fall short of 3 votes for reaching the half way mark. In this scenario, the role of small parties like AIMIM, MNS and BVA will become crucial as they will get into the role of ‘kingmakers’ then.