New Delhi: In the hotly contested battle for Uttarakhand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to return to power for the second consecutive term with comfortable majority, reveals an pre-poll survey by Chief Consultants Strategists Limited (CCSL). The return of Pushkar Dhami-led government will create a history of sorts as the ‘land of gods’ hasn’t given second chance to incumbent govts, since its formation in 2000.
According to the pre-poll survey, BJP and Congress will remain the dominant players in electoral arena while Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is all set to spring a surprise despite its making its foray in state politics.
Going by survey numbers, the BJP is headed for a clear & comfortable majority in the Assembly elections. The party is seen losing 11 seats as compared to 2017 elections but will end up with 46 seats (+-3), thereby emerging as single largest party. Congress is projected to a major beneficiary of BJP setback but its tally is likely to remain at 22 seats (+-3). AAP, BSP & Others will not be able their account.
The pre-poll survey was conducted by a team of surveyors of Chief Consultants Strategists Limited (CCSL), during 10th Dec 2021 to 25th Jan 2022. The survey was conducted in 70 assembly constituencies spread across 13 district in the states and a sample size of 1,40,000 was taken for the purpose.
On Debut, AAP seen fetching lion’s share of votes
In terms of vote share too, the BJP’s electoral fortunes are declining when compared to 2017 elections. But, with close to 40% vote share, it remains the most favoured choice of electorate. Congress vote share will witness an uptick of 1.5% but it’s the AAP which is seen springing a major surprise.
The party which had no presence in 2017 elections is seen fetching a lion’s share of votes in its maiden elections.
Region wise – Garhwal & Kumaon
In Garhwal, BJP numbers is seen dipping from 34 seats (2017) to 28 while in Kumaon region, numbers are likely to fall from 23 to 18 seats. For Congress, it’s a gain of 5 & 6 in Garhwal & Kumaon region respectively.
With respect to vote share, BJP poll percentage is likely to tumble by 8% & 6% respectively while for Congress, it’s a gain of 2% & 6% respectively.
