Year Ender 2023: BJP victories in Hindi heartland sets stage for ensuing Lok Sabha polls

New Delhi: The year 2023 turned out to be a successful year for BJP as it registered comprehensive victories in the Hindi heartland and set the stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party which was unable to repeat its government in Karnataka, was able to wrest power from Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and comprehensively retain power in Madhya Pradesh.

BJP’s strategic victories in Hindi Heartland.

BJP deployed its ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ tactic which ensured a sweep in Hindi Heartland states. Coming to Chhattisgarh, BJP introduced 47 new faces in the 90-seat Assembly. BJP tripled its 2018 tally and was able to secure 54 seats while Congress came a distant second and halved its previous election tally with 35 seats.

The vote share of BJP was 46.27 per cent whereas Congress had 42.23 per cent.

BJP inflicted heavy defeats on Congress in the Surguja region where Congress lost all its 14 seats including TS Singh Deo, former Deputy Chief Minister losing his Ambikapur seat to BJP’s Rajesh Agrawal which further added salt to the wounds.BJP relentlessly targeted former Chief Minister Baghel after the Enforcement Directorate accused the former CM of being involved in the Mahadev Betting scam app.

The agency claimed that regular payments were made in the past and, so far, about Rs 508 crore has been paid by the promoters of the Mahadev betting app to CM Bhupesh Baghel.

BJP also said that Congress failed to deliver various poll promises it made in 2018, such as banning liquor in the state and other promises made to the women section of society. BJP directed this ploy on women stating that Congress hardly respects any women across the nation.

After days of consultation, the BJP appointed Vishnu Deo Sai as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh.

Sai won the Kunkuri Assembly seat with a total of 87,604 votes. He is a prominent figure in the BJP and has held various positions, including being the former state chief and former union minister.

Another Hindi Heartland state, Madhya Pradesh went to polls where BJP ensured a massive victory by registering victory on 163 seats. Congress was only able to secure 66 seats in the polls.

BJP secured 48.55 per cent while Congress was far at 40.40 per cent.

Ladli Behna scheme, launched by former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan resonated with women voters. The scheme was launched in month of March earlier this year. The scheme was introduced in addition to the Mukhyamantri Kanya VIvah and Nikah, Mukhyamantri Kanya Abhibhavak pension.

Here BJP also fielded key former Central ministers including Narendra Singh Tomar, and Pralhad Patel reflecting the importance it had given to these assembly polls. BJP General Secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya fought elections from the Indore-1 constituency.

The Congress pushed its campaign around its 11 guarantees, which included a host of freebies, but the voters found nothing substantive in this with the BJP already giving the people the benefit of several social schemes especially the Ladli Behna scheme that saw massive support amongst the women voters.

An era of former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan came to an end after BJP appointed the party MLA Mohan Yadav as Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.

Yadav became an MLA for the first time in 2013 from Ujjain South Assembly constituency and won his second term in 2018. Subsequently, he was elected an MLA for the third time in 2023 and chosen as the CM of the state.

The strategy of appointing Mohan Yadav has been seen by analysts to strengthen its OBC votes while making an impression on Yadav votes at the same time.

In Rajasthan, BJP was able to get 115 seats which helped it form government comfortably and Congress came a distant second with 69 seats.

BJP got 41.69 per cent of the vote share whereas its rival party Congress was able to manage 39.53 per cent of the votes.

It is noteworthy that the BJP did not declare a chief ministerial candidate for the Rajasthan elections this time, unlike in previous elections when Vasundhara Raje was announced as the party’s candidate.

The party also fielded key Lok Sabha Parliamentarians in the Assembly elections Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, Diya Kumari, and Balak Nath.

BJP targetted Ashok Gehlot on the allegations of possessing a Red Diary, which reportedly contains secrets about Congress’s corruption in its tenure. The issue of eight paper leaks in Rajasthan also ruined Congress prospects and played a key role in ensuring BJP’s win.

JP Nadda in an election rally at Ramgarh said, “Do remember the Laal Diary? All the names entered in that diary will be in the public domain on November 25 and December 3. All those named in the Laal Diary will be brought to justice and put behind bars. Remember this.”

BJP MLA from Sanganer, Bhajanlal Sharma was appointed as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan on Friday at a swearing-in ceremony in Jaipur. Diya Kumari and Prem Chand Bairwa were appointed as Deputy Chief Ministers.

Performance in North East states

Here BJP-NDPP alliance returned to power in Nagaland in this year’s assembly polls. The alliance secured 37 seats in the 60-member House.

In Mizoram, the BJP was only able to get 2 seats. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) was ousted by the Zoram People’s Movement – ZPM.

Performance in Southern states.

A concern for the BJP has arisen in the southern part of the country after the BJP suffered defeats in Karnataka and Telangana. The BJP government in Karnataka faced anti-incumbency and the ground was ripe for Congress victory.

Congress benefitted from the presence of strong state leaders in former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. Many analysts have stated that corruption charges against the former CM Basavaraj Bommai’s government had dented the image of the BJP.

The party could not come up with a response to the Congress allegations of the 40 per cent commission in lieu it takes for awarding government contracts.PM Modi held more than a dozen rallies in the state, but those rallies failed to achieve the necessary outcomes.

In Telangana, the outcome of Congress coming to power after defeating BRS a party which ruled the state since its inception has been seen as a chance missed for the BJP.

Even though BJP secured a third position as predicted by pollsters the party managed to increase its tally of seats from 1 to 8 and doubled its vote share. Another positive sign for BJP in these elections was it managed to overtake AIMIM.

Performance in local body polls

BJP was able to sweep the Gujarat Nagarpalika bypoll by winning 21 of the 30 seats. It also registered a clean sweep on all 17 Mayor seats in Uttar Pradesh Municipal polls.

However, in West Bengal, the BJP suffered defeats at the hands of the TMC in the violence-marred local body polls. TMC was able to bag 34,560 Gram Panchayat Seats while BJP won 9,621 seats.

Way forward for BJP with eyes on 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Amid preparations for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party has set a target of achieving a 50 per cent vote share. Along with this, the party will start cluster meetings after January 15 and Yuva Morcha will hold 5000 conferences across the country.

The two-day meeting of BJP national office-bearers concluded on Saturday. In this meeting, the BJP has set a target of achieving a 50 per cent vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Along with this, the party will run a campaign across the country to connect with new voters. The BJP will organise programmes at booth level to connect with new voters.

According to sources, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has asked all the officials in the meeting to ensure a bumper victory margin in the Lok Sabha elections.

Cluster meetings will be organized by dividing Lok Sabhas across the country into clusters. In these clusters, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and BJP President JP Nadda will address public meetings. Yuva Morcha will start new voter conferences on January 24.

The BJP Yuva Morcha will organise 5,000 conferences across the country. Along with this, social conferences will also be organised across the country.

Along with this, BJP has decided to run a campaign for Ram Mandir celebrations starting January 1, in which BJP workers will go door to door in all the villages across the country and encourage ten crore families to participate in Diya Lightning programs for Ram Temple in Ayodhya.

Keen to win over the minority community ahead of the Lok Sabha elections next year, the BJP will start a minority outreach programme — ‘Alpsankhyak Sneh Samvad’.