Madhya Pradesh: Poll survey predicts close battle, Congress seen inching ahead of BJP

New Delhi: Madhya Pradesh is set for another intense electoral battle as the Congress and the BJP lock horns again, mirroring the closely fought 2018 elections. The recently conducted ABP-CVoter survey sheds light on the seat projections for each party in the state’s first opinion poll. With a neck-and-neck race unfolding in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, the possibility of a hung Vidhan Sabha looms large.

According to the ABP-CVoter survey, the incumbent BJP is projected to secure 106-118 seats, while the Congress is expected to garner support from 108-120 assembly constituencies. The BSP, if successful in opening its account in Madhya Pradesh this year, could potentially secure 1 to 4 seats. The survey also reveals a tight contest between the BJP and the Congress regarding vote share, with both parties projected to receive around 44% of the total votes cast.

In the previous Madhya Pradesh election held in 2018, the BJP secured 109 seats, falling short of the majority mark by a margin of seven seats. The Congress emerged as the largest single party with 114 seats, missing the majority by just two seats.

Despite failing to reach the majority mark, Congress managed to form the government in the state after a 15-year hiatus, with Kamal Nath assuming the chief ministerial position. The Congress relied on the support of one SP MLA, 2 BSP MLAs, and 4 Independent MLAs — essentially securing the backing of all non-BJP seats. However, Kamal Nath’s tenure was short-lived as a revolt led by Jyotiraditya Scindia, who defected to the BJP along with 22 MLAs, resulting in the toppling of the Kamal Nath government. Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned for his fourth term as Chief Minister. 

As the Congress aims to regain power in Madhya Pradesh this year, the dynamics of the opposition landscape will be intriguing, given the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party and the Samajwadi Party as contenders alongside the Congress and the BJP. Additionally, all three opposition parties are seeking to unite under the banner of a united opposition front for the 2023 Lok Sabha elections, as proposed by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.