Manipur violence: Striking difference in perception & reality, finds Public Opinion survey

New Delhi: Majority believe Manipur as ethnic conflict, backing central government on the issue, the latest survey on Manipur gives astonishing results.

• 55% see this as an ethnic conflict, mere 29% term it as a law & order issue
• 50% say the state government could have done more to control the situation, 57% say center did its bit
• BJP’s support base plus political neutral lot largely supports the party on the Manipur issue
• INC+ has not been able to make much impact, despite its strong attack, only 36% of its support base see it as a law and order issue while 40% of them term it as an ethnic issue
• 9679 samples collected from 22 states, using CATI

A survey carried out by Pollsters India, a leading public opinion tracking company on Manipur situation, has found strikingly different results which establish a clear divide between perception and reality. The survey found that an overwhelming majority look Manipur more as an ethnic conflict and less as a law-and-order problem. Most people, surveyed, says the state government could have done better to handle the situation while central government has little role and they did their bit to control the problem in the state. The results are quite interesting as a delegation of opposition MPs has recently visited Manipur to assess the situation, blaming central government for the worsening situation of the state.

The violence in the state, which started in early May, has killed many people. So what is the primary reason for the violence? The survey gives a very clear answer to the question. 55% of the respondents surveyed see this as an ethnic conflict between the Meities and Kukis while only 29% see as a law-and-order problem. 16% did not have a clear view on the matter.

The survey indicated that the Opposition’s attack against the central government has only a limited impact with most of the respondents believing it as a state issue, perceive it as a state government mishandling. About half the respondents in the survey believed that the state government has not done enough to control the situation in the state. Against this, 34% of the respondents stated they were satisfied with the way in which the state government has handled the situation.

Interestingly Union government found majority support over the issue. About 57% of the respondents believed that the Union Government has done enough to control the situation. Only 1/4th i.e. 25% of the respondents believed that the central government could have done more while 18% of the respondents did not have a clear view on the matter.

The survey also tried to explore the response along with party lines, assessing the mood of BJP as well as Congress supporters and its allies. 70% of the BJP supporters look at Manipur as an ethnic conflict while those who support the Congress (and its allies) are divided on the issue. 40% of the Congress+ supporters believe that the Manipur is in the middle of an ethnic conflict while 36% see this as a law and order problem. The survey also approached politically neutral lot. Political neutrals, people who don’t see themselves as supporters of any political party, are found to be leaning more towards the BJP on this issue. While 51% of ‘political neutrals’ believe that Manipur is an ethnic conflict, the 31% believe it as a law and order problem. 44% of those who support other parties, which haven’t joined the Congress-led alliance, believe it is an ethnic conflict against 41% who say it is law and order problem.

Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on Pollsters Indias’ survey, carried out between July 22 and 27, covered 9,679 adult respondents (18+), through random numbers drawn from standard RDD randomly generated telephone calls across 22 states and UTs, using the CATI system. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level with 95% Confidence interval.

 About Pollsters India:

Pollsters India is India’s fastest growing data intelligence consulting agency, which believes in powering data driven decision making. The company has a pan India presence and has touched households in almost all states & UT’s. It counts some of India’s pioneer business groups, industry bodies, social organizations and public associations in its clientele and offers a research based data services, including consumer satisfaction and market research survey. For more information write us on [email protected]