Post Karnataka win, can Cong challenge BJP in 2024 polls?: Survey brings out mood of nation, if polls held today

New Delhi: Congress is buoyed by landslide victory in Karnataka Assembly elections. In the recently concluded polls, Congress garnered its highest ever vote share of 43% which also translated into record numbers. The party bagged 136 seats in 224 member Assembly while the ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was reduced to meagre 65 seats while Janata Dal (Secular)’s numbers got truncated to almost half i.e. from 37 to 19 seats.

Post thumping victory in Karnataka, the mood within Congress camp is ecstatic and many believe that this is the beginning of party’s rejuvenation & revival. Record 43% vote share may be a good reason for the grand old party to feel energized & optimistic about upcoming polls in states as well as Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

While the poll analysts debate the semi-final contests to final battle of 2024 LS polls, a survey has come out with seats forecast and number projections if General Elections are held today.

What the Survey says about election results now

The Survey, in its findings, reveals that the BJP continues to remain the decisive & most potent force of Indian polity. Assessing a situation that if Lok Sabha elections are held today, the poll survey finds that BJP will emerge as the biggest party with about 290-293 seats while the grand old party is seen getting limited to just 62-64 seats.

If these numbers are to be believed, BJP’s performance now is even better than 2014 elections when it won 282 seats. For Congress, it’s just a slight improvement from 52 seats (in 2019) to 62-64 seats now.

The agency @Janmatpolls which conducted this survey describes itself as a media & news company, reporting on ground report of Assembly & Lok Sabha elections.

Janmatpolls, in its Twitter profile, claims to have social media presence of over 5 years and also claims to have prepared ground reporting on many Assembly Elections.

LS seats Assessment in states

While Karnataka victory has given Congress party a reason to cheer about and mount an decisive fight against the incumbent, the Survey doesn’t see any major loss for the BJP or major gain for the grand old party.

Gauging the current mood of nation, the Janmatpolls survey forecasts BJP numbers at 290-293, which is just about 10 seats less than 2019 elections while for Congress, it predicts a gain of just 10 MPs i.e. from 52 to 62 seats.

The saffron party is also seen keeping control of Lok Sabha seats in many states including Karnataka & other states.

Our Assessment for Loksabha 2024 Elections

Ground report

BJP-290-293

Congress-62-64

Rajasthan
BJP+ 24-25

Bihar
BJP = 19-21

West Bangal
BJP =15-17

Hariyana
BJP+ 8-9

Telangana
BJP =4-5

Karnataka
BJP =15-17

— Janmat polls (@Janmatpolls) May 16, 2023

In Karnataka, Congress is seen spoiling BJP’s chances as the latter is expected to lose about 8-10 seats as compared to previous LS polls, however, it is still expected to fetch 15-17 out of 28 seats.

In states like Haryana & Rajasthan, the saffron party is headed for a clean sweep by winning about 8-9 seats and almost all 24-25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan.

In states like West Bengal & Telangana, the BJP is likely to maintain status quo with projected victory in 15-17 and 4-5 seats respectively.

Bihar is one state where the saffron party is seen losing out heavily. In 2019 LS elections, the party won 39 out of 40 LS seats but this time, this tally is projected to drop to 19-21 seats.