Will PM Modi return to Red Fort next year? What people think about PM’s big claim? This is what Survey found out

New Delhi: Majority believe in PM Narendra Modi’s claim of return to Red Fort next year while opposition loses perception war in No-Confidence motion. Pollsters India Survey “Parliament to Red Fort” reveals interesting indications

● 54% believe Prime Minister’s claims that he would be back next year at Red Fort, while 37% believe that elections are expected to be a close affair
● 55% don’t think Mallikarjun Kharge should have stayed away from Red Fort
● Surjewala’s ‘Rakshasa’ statement did not go down well with the public as 62% of the respondents said they disagreed with Surjewala.
● 52% say BJP+ benefited from No-Confidence Motion brought by Opposition while only 40% said the Congress-led alliance had the upper hand
● 52% of the respondents stated that Modi’s speech was better than Rahul Gandhi (39%).

A survey carried out by Pollsters India, a leading public opinion tracking company on “Parliament to Red Fort”, indicates interesting divide between reality and perception. The survey found that an overwhelming majority of respondents believes that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be back at the Red Fort to make his 11th Independence Day speech on August 15, 2024 while Opposition loses perception war in No-Confidence motion. The Congress-led alliance has a lot to do to catch up with the BJP-led NDA in the 8 months leading up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election scheduled for May next year.

The national political discourse still seems to be with the ruling BJP-led alliance as the Opposition loses perception war both inside parliament and at Red fort ceremony as well. As per survey, the decision of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge to stay away from the Independence Day celebrations at the Red Fort and Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala’s ‘Rakshashas’ remark also damaged the prospect of Congress-led alliance.

In his speech on August 15, the Prime Minister stated that he would be back on the Red Fort in 2024, after the next Lok Sabha election, trying to indicate that he was very confident of an electoral victory in 2024. 54% of the Respondents of the survey believed that he would come back while 37% of the respondents believed that elections are expected to be a close affair.

National political equations have changed a bit after the consolidation of the opposition vote under newly formed I.N.D.I.A. alliance and the BJP’s chances of re-election depend on how well it performs in North and West India. These two regions account for 258 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha and the NDA had won 220 of these seats. Maharashtra continues to be a key battle ground as a series of defections from the MVA to the NDA has evened out the impact of the Shiv Sena joining the opposition alliance.

In this survey, majority of the respondents from North and Western India believe that PM Modi would be back next year, respondents in East and South India indicated that the game is still relatively open. The BJP-led NDA has managed to win only around 30 seats out of the 131 in South, majority of them from Karnataka where the Congress registered an impressive win in the recent assembly elections.

The NDA had won 86 of the 129 seats in East India but the shift of the JDU and consolidation of the anti-BJP vote in West Bengal indicates that the NDA could suffer some reverses and this trend is visible in these polls. The BJP had a 25%-plus voteshare lead in West and North India and these two regions gave BJP 220 seats. A strong lead for the BJP here indicates that the BJP is in a strong position to come back with a national majority, unless the INDIA alliance can work out a strong late swing, like they did in 2004.

Given the nature of the electoral battle, it is important that the Congress manages to recapture the national narrative, but that seems a little difficult, considering Congress president Malliakarjun Kharge’s decision to stay away from the Independence Day celebrations at the Red Fort. Though Kharge led the Congress’ celebrations at the party’s national HQ, his decision to stay away from the national celebrations did not go down well as 55% of the respondents did not support the move while 36% of the respondents indicated that it was not really a problem. To make matters worse he did not seem to be getting too much support from East and Southern India, two areas where INC gets stronger support.

Even as the Congress is making an all-out effort to gain additional support from the middle-ground and enhance its appeal among neutral voters, its own leaders seem to be scoring self-goals. Former Congress chief spokesperson and Karnataka in-charge Randeep Singh Surjewala compared not just the BJP, but also its supporters as Raskshasas (demons) and cursed them in a public meeting in Kaithal, in his home state in Haryana. The BJP went out an all-out offensive and turned it into a national issue.

The statement did not go down well as 62% of the respondents said they disagreed with Surjewala and only 18% of the respondents stood in agreement. The trend was similar across the country and respondents in both East and South India rejected Surjewala’s statement.

The no-confidence motion brought by the Opposition parties was a great opportunity to put the government in the dock, even though it was clear that the motion would be defeated as the ruling government had the numbers to sail through. It was seen as a comeback for former Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who had spent a better part of the year outside the Parliament after being disqualified. We asked respondents which alliance benefitted more from the no confidence motion and 52% of the respondents felt that the BJP had the edge while 40% said the Congress-led INDIA alliance had the upper hand. The formation of the INDIA alliance has consolidated the anti-BJP vote in most parts of the country, but this also means political opinion has become much more polarized.

59% of the respondents in North and 60% in West India believed that the BJP benefited from the debate as it was able to demolish whatever arguments were put against the government. The Congress-led alliance had a lead in South India, which has 131 seats in the Lok Sabha and this is a region where the BJP-led alliance could get only 26% of the votes in 2019, against 38% for the Congress-led alliance and neutral regional parties got around 27% votes.

The Eastern region is expected to be a key battle ground in 2024 as the re-alignment of parties like the JDU and AITC is helping the INDIA alliance consolidate, giving it a 3.4% lead based on 2019 voteshare. The INDIA alliance’s no-confidence motion strategy, however, did not go according to plan as 52% of the respondents said the motion ended up benefiting the BJP. The trend is broadly the same across demographics.

The no-confidence motion was the first direct contest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and key challenger Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi’s 38-minute speech was high on aggression and had the support of the INDIA base but he did not make much impact on the middle ground. 52% of the respondents stated that Modi’s speech was better than Rahul Gandhi (39%).

In the regional context, PM Modi was expected to lead in North and West regions but he even managed to have an edge in East India and even an equal share in South. This indicates that there is a segment of INDIA voters and also those who support regional parties, who rated Prime Minister Modi’s speech higher than the attack mounted by Rahul Gandhi.

Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on Pollsters Indias’ survey, carried out between August 15 and 17 after the Prime Minister finished his Independence Day address, covered 10,233 adult respondents (18+), through random numbers drawn from standard RDD randomly generated telephone calls across 22 states and UTs, using the CATI system. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level with 95% Confidence interval.

About Pollsters India:

Pollsters India is India’s fastest growing data intelligence consulting agency, which believes in powering data driven decision making. The company has a pan India presence and has touched households in almost all states & UT’s. It counts some of India’s pioneer business groups, industry bodies, social organizations and public associations in its clientele and offers a research based data services, including consumer satisfaction and market research survey. For more information write us on [email protected]