Who will win UP?: SP on alliance stitching spree, BSP down but not out; can it be an Advantage BJP?

With Assembly elections approaching, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) is gaining momentum on ground with large assembly of people at his rallies. The SP leader has hit the ground running and is making his presence felt on ground with several rallies & processions. In its bid to attain big vote-share, the party is cobbling together many smaller parties including Mahan Dal, Apna Dal & Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj party (SBSP). Latest to join the SP applecart is ‘chacha’ Shivpal Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party. Though Mulayam’s son & brother will hold 2 different parties, together they have decided to join hands for fight against BJP in UP.

In contrast to SP’s gameplan, BJP’s aggressive developmental plank holds promise but also remains fraught with risks. As economic distress signals continues to hold sway, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s multiple visits to the state has come as a welcome surprise. PM Modi is on projects unveiling spree in the state and has been articulate enough to send across message, even laced with religious overtones. On other hand, Akhilesh Yadav’s Vijay Yatra has been crisscrossing the state. Mayawati-led BSP is largely being listless and indolent.

In the past, Uttar Pradesh has seen four-cornered contests. However, in current scenario, SP is seen as BJP’s biggest challenger. If 2022 elections see a bipolar contest, the political dynamics may change and people may opt more for the two – either BJP or SP. And, if the elections are held in the looming shadow of Omicron, new Covid-19 variant, the pandemic may further impact millions of Aam Aadmi’s voting patterns.

Yogi Adityanath is a Chief Minister with a brand of his own. In 2017 elections, BJP won the state with landslide margin but then Yogi was not the CM face. So, the likely apprehension in top BJP leadership about going solo with him. In all the grand ceremonies like Jewar airport, Purvanchal Expressway & Kashi Vishawanath corridor inauguration, it was PM Modi who took the centrestage and in all likelihood will spearhead the BJP’s charge in coming elections. The infrastructure bonanza has given the party, a right to brag about its development works and also harp on benefits of having the same party in Centre & state.

Meanwhile, subliminal & not-so-subliminal messaging by the BJP leadership leave enough hints of what is likely to a long Hindutva playlist. PM Modi’s talk of Aurganzeb vs Shivaji and Salar Masud vs King Suheldev has already set the tone for elections. Not to forget, Akhilesh raking up Jinnah was also a calculated move for ‘nurturing’ a certain section of electorate.

Opinion polls & surveys conducted over last few days, put BJP at a vantage point. Akhilesh is seen rallying forward at a brisk pace and is relentlessly targeting Yogi govt on issues like unemployment, inflation. His promise of caste census has also received support. Having tied up with RLD, SP is hoping for a strong showing up in Western UP and also hopes to cash in from farmers’ wrath over agri laws. It not only wants to exploit anti-incumbency but is also looking at ways how much Dalit & Muslim votes it can gather.

Congress remains a non-starter, despite Priyanka Gandhi at the helm. Her audacious move to raise women candidates for direct fight against rival candidates looks more of a rhetoric than substance.

Lastly, UP is not a state where political experiments work, rather it votes based on sentiments and caste combinations. Congress, for now, surely looks unconvincing and is nowhere in the fray.