World Cup 2023 qualification scenario: New Zealand’s loss is Pak’s gain; race to semis heats up

New Delhi: The race to semi-final of Cricket World Cup 2023 is heating up with top teams gunning for a place in the penultimate round while minnows like Afghanistan & Netherlands also keeping their fingers crossed over their prospects.

India remains the only unbeaten team in the tournament and stood at top until South Africa handed over a crushing defeat to New Zealand in last evening match and raced to the top spot. Both teams are comfortably staring at the semi-final berth. Australia also look within striking range of clinching semi berth while the fourth spot becomes open for multiple teams.

New Zealand’s debacle against South Africa by 190 runs in Match No 32 of the tournament has spiced up the race for semis and opened floodgates for possible entry of Pakistan and even Afghanistan. The Black Caps were in commanding position at the start of their World Cup campaign but the dip in their form lately has left bottom-chart teams to stay hopeful of semi berth. Out of 7 matches, it won first 4 and then lost 3 matches consecutively. Loss against South Africa has also taken down its run rate with a great extent.

Breaking down WC team’s qualification scenario

South Africa

South Africa remain the table-topper in World Cup points tally. Out of 7 matches, they have won 6 and have 12 points. Their run rate is best among the pack, as the team scored more than 350 runs, almost four times in the tournament so far.

South Africa is yet to play two matches, 1 against India and the other against Afghanistan.

Team India

India, being the unbeaten team so far, has 12 points from 6 matches. The Men in Blue will lock horns with Sri Lanka on November 2, South Africa on November 5 and Netherlands on November 12.
India will need to defeat at least one team to seal their spot in the semi-final. Today’s match with Sri Lanka is crucial as victory will take the team to semis.

Australia

Australia, currently at third spot in the points tally, has also 3 matches left in the league stage. Out of 6 matches, it has won 4 and lost 2 games.

The five-times World Champion would be assured of a semi-final berth if they get to win at least 2 out of 3 left matches.

New Zealand/Pakistan/Afghanistan

Despite the disastrous loss, New Zealand remains well in contention for the semis. Their run-rate is modestly okay, still they need victory in all scheduled matches. As per fixtures, Kiwis are yet to play against Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The real trouble will begin, if they lose against Pakistan on November 4.

The race to the #CWC23 semi-finals took an interesting turn on Wednesday with South Africa’s big win over the Kiwis 👀

Details 👇

— ICC (@ICC) November 1, 2023

Pakistan’s hopes are still alive but much will depend on other team’s status than their own performance. Their poor run rate add more to their woes. However, if they defeat New Zealand in November 4 match either by 83 runs or chase the target in 35 overs, this may become a turning point for them.

For Afghanistan, this could be its maiden chance to storm into World Cup semi-final but they will need to win all their upcoming matches.

Afghanistan has 6 points from 6 matches. If they go on to win all 3 rest matches, their points would zoom to 12, thus making them a strong contender for the semis. A comparison of the run-rate of competing teams will be the decider then.