What does Imran Khan’s exit from Pak power corridors imply for geopolitical reality?

On Monday, April 11th, after a lengthy political drama, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif took oath as Pakistan’s 23rd Prime Minister. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led government was overthrown when coalition partners withdrew their support, saying that then-Prime Minister Imran Khan conspired against Pakistan’s army head, General Bajwa. It is worth noting that Imran Khan was the first Pakistani Prime Minister to be dethroned via a no-confidence resolution, but he followed the Pakistani Prime Ministerial legacy: Imran Khan, like all his predecessors since Pakistan’s inception, did not serve a full term. Yes, no Pakistani prime minister has served a full term as the Islamic nation continues to spiral out of control with each ostensibly chaotic iteration that only serves to exacerbate the crisis.

His presidency was typified by huge promises, larger-than-life boasts, and language that would make any outsider laugh, but it placed him in a stronger position among Pakistanis. He often mimicked the body language of a famous Netflix comedy called Ertugral, which praised Turkish Islamists in an artificial 13th-century narrative. He also successfully enchanted the Pakistani audience with his pollyannaish speeches on Naya Pakistan and the establishment of a utopian territory, Riyasat-e-Madina, outside the land of the original Muslims, Saudi Arabia. His tricks aided him greatly in avoiding inflation, stalled growth, mounting debt, decreasing currency reserves, unemployment, corruption, and other national problems that he had previously pledged to solve. However, it is worth noting that his background also played a significant role in his ascension to the PM’s chair, since rural Pakistanis held him in high respect as a result of his privileged education overseas and subsequent spell as captain of the Pakistani cricket team. To them, he was a guy who understood Europe and other foreign countries, spoke English well, and, most crucially, had a worldview that seemed more Islamist than Arabs themselves when it came to public demonstrations.

Despite the fact that this is normal among our neighbors, considering the status of the globe today, it is a worrying scenario for us. Let us examine why this normal power dynamics change in Pakistan will have long-term significance and ramifications for India and the rest of the globe.

To begin, it is critical to recognize that no Pakistani administration can survive without the active assistance of the Pakistani military establishment, and Imran Khan’s fiasco sprang from his misunderstanding of this reality. Despite being removed from the highest constitutional position, he remains a popular leader in Pakistan, although he has been at differences with Pakistani Chief of Army Staff General Qamar JavedBajwa. On April 9, he sought to dismiss Bajwa in order to assist one of his confidants, Lt Gen Hameed, climb to the top of ISI’s command.

With being stated, it is critical to remember the adage, “every nation has an army, but the Pakistani army has a country.” The Pakistani Army is engaged in practically every company, from FaujiRiceflakes to Fauji Fertilizers. Power in Pakistan, whether political or financial, passes from Rawalpindi to Islamabad. In reality, the court, too, showed Imran the door, reinstalling the army’s control over the country’s democratic system. Imran Khan did not take any of this lightly, as he delivered many impassioned addresses in the last month of his presidency, with the one on April 10th gaining huge support from regular Pakistanis. He went on to describe the United States as the primary foreign force plotting to depose his rule, notwithstanding Pakistan’s increasing closeness to both China and Russia. So far, the Pakistani Army has not participated in any capacity in the power transfer process, at least on the surface. The next elections are scheduled to take place before the end of October, since the PML-N and PPP want to utilize this period to strengthen political support on the ground. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party may attempt to force early elections by resigning from all provincial and national parliament, but this effort is unlikely to succeed.

These trends might lead to further conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, if it hasn’t already, as the two radicalized and prejudiced Islamic nations continue to clash. On the other side, the cash-strapped Taliban has faced economic difficulties and political isolation from the world’s democracies since seizing control of Afghanistan, and its leaders are eyeing Pakistan as the next battlefield. Its hold on the Taliban seems to be slipping, with an increasing number of reports of clashes between the Pakistani Army and the Taliban’s jihadis. With the United States claiming to have replaced Pakistan on the Taliban front with Qatar, the arrangement poses significant risks to various parties in the area. “We (the United States) don’t need Pakistan as a conduit to the Taliban,” said Lisa Curtis, head of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Centre for a New American Security think tank. Qatar is unquestionably filling that role right now.”

On the China front, all seems to be normal, since Pakistan’s current Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, is known to work with China on the $60 billion CPEC project as the governor of Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province. Even Imran Khan has been open in his support for China, thus the prevailing circumstances are essentially the same as in the past. However, the economic side of Pakistan-China relations will remain a mystery, since Pakistan just returned a billion-dollar debt to Saudi Arabia by borrowing another billion-dollar loan from China at a higher interest rate. Such foundations continue to weigh on the Pakistani economy, which is now experiencing a 35-billion-dollar trade imbalance, a record high for the nation.

Increased disarray does not seem to be a positive indication for India, since Shahbaz Sharif’s initial words in Indo-Pak ties during his reign were geared at bringing Kashmir into politics. However, unlike Imran Khan, who resembles a downtuned version of Arvid Kejriwal owing to their comparable educated, dreamy personalities that fail to accomplish anything significant on the ground, Shahbaz hails from a political dynasty, with his brother Nawas Sharif having gained the PM chair three times. Given that the Sharif family has pursued a more peaceful approach in Kashmir, this might be part of Sharif’s effort to divert attention away from inflation and other difficulties. Regardless, the overall picture suggests that the Pakistani Army will be able to operate more easily, which is bad news for the region’s security. In addition to these events, diplomatic negotiations between the two areas have been stopped, adding to the turbulence of the situation. Political unrest in the coming days may exacerbate the situation, as Imran Khan and his party are masters at taking the streets by storm. This may compel the existing leadership to shift its focus to other issues, which is also not a good indication. Nonetheless, a change in Pakistan’s administration would only help to destroy the country’s existing stability.

According to US-based South Asia experts, Pakistan’s political issue is unlikely to be a priority for President Joe Biden, who is focused with the Ukraine situation, unless it ends in massive upheaval or increasing tensions with New Delhi. “We have a lot of other fish to fry,” said Robin Raphel, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia. “Because the military is in control of the policies that matter to the US, such as Afghanistan, India, and nuclear weapons,” said Curtis, who previously worked as the National Security Council’s senior director for South Asia under former US President Donald Trump. Khan has blamed the United States for the current political predicament, stating that the US wanted him deposed after his recent trip to Moscow. Washington categorically denies any connection.

The cause for such exceptional political transformations may be traced partly to international pressures and multiple agreements that prohibit any country having an army coup from accepting foreign money. In reality, Pakistan is seeking a $6 billion IMF bailout, which explains why the Pakistan army prefers to work behind closed doors. History demonstrates that a puppet government allows it to function freely while receiving foreign cash under the guise of democracy. It is up to us to reveal the truth of Pakistan’s democratic process’s coming demise, but it is evident that this paradigm of sustaining the status quo in Pak’s power hegemony will not survive as many future iterations as it has in the past. Every time a new leader takes the PM’s seat, expectations fly higher than the prior time, and the fiasco, too, causes a bigger uproar.

GopalGiriGoswami is a correspondent, columnist and independent journalist. He tweets with @gopalgiri_uk