New Delhi: Going through the TV debates and Prime Time news at a time when Gujarat and Himachal Elections had voted for the legislative assembly elections, then you must have heard the term “Exit Polls” ahead of the assembly results. With the Gujarat elections coming to an end today, the Exit Polls will be the main focus for the mainstream media.
But the question that arises amongst the viewers is – what exactly these exit polls are? How can someone predict election results way before the counting and that too in an accurate manner? How are these exit polls conducted?
Here’s all you need to know about the exit polls, how are they conducted, and the rules governing them in India.
What are Exit Polls?
Exit Polls are basically a type of survey which is conducted amongst the voters of a particular region or state where the elections are taking place. It is done after they cast their votes in the election. In simple terms, it is asking a voter what party they support and which candidate they have voted for after they cast their votes. They work on the concept that a voter is more likely, to tell the truth as soon as he/she has cast the vote. The objective is to tell the mood of the voters and give a rough idea about the outcome of elections.
Exit poll of 2017 Gujarat election – Most of the exit polls had predicted over 110 seats for BJP but it could only manage 99 seats . pic.twitter.com/ERnE2eqTZU
— ashish khatri (@ashishk48865254) December 5, 2022
Who conducts them and how accurate are these?
The voters must be aware that these exit polls are not conducted by any government organization. They are usually conducted by private survey firms in collaboration with some media houses. Despite being immensely popular their accuracy still remains questionable. There are instances where certain organizations due to their political biasness or ideological bent create fake exit polls favoring their party. Many times politicians allege media houses of creating wrong exit polls and favoring some political parties. This is to be kept in mind that an ‘Exit Poll’ no matter which agency conducts it always provides just a rough idea as to where the wind is blowing in an election and not an accurate mandate of the public.
How are Exit Polls conducted?
An exit poll is conducted by asking a set of fixed questions to the voters after they cast their vote. It is quite different from an Opinion poll as an opinion poll is the opinion of voters asked way before elections take place. In an exit poll survey questionnaire is created in such a way that a voter honestly speaks up as to what party and candidate he/she has voted for.
गुजरात चुनाव का Post Poll Survey#Exit नहीं #Exact पोल ….
5 दिसंबर को
सिर्फसबसे भरोसेमंद यूट्यूब चैनल https://t.co/RYQJPJk5vX पर । pic.twitter.com/DMxM4MgL09
— Opinion Poll (@eOpinionPolls) December 3, 2022
What rules govern them?
The issue that when these exit polls should be published has been debatable for a very long time. The issue has reached the supreme court more than a couple of times. Then strict guidelines were made as to when these polls should come out. A judgment was given by the supreme court that made clear that exit polls must not be released before the voting starts till the final vote has been cast and the last phase of voting concludes.
Talking about the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections, the EC has issued a notification that publishing any exit poll would be prohibited between 8 am on November 12 and 5.30 pm on December 5. While Himachal Pradesh voted on November 12, Gujarat voted in two phases on December 1 and December 5. Results for both states will be out on December 8.
