Not $5 trillion, JP Morgan’s top executive sees India becoming $7 trillion economy by 2030

New Delhi: Amid the distressing signals of economic turmoil globally, India remains the bright spot and has potential to become ‘growth engine’ of the world. Today, India is the fastest growing economy and has rightly set its sights on breaking into the League of Top 3 economies of the world.

India’s poise & growth potential is making the global powers & their billionaire investors making a beeline to set their plants in India. And, driving this investment focus towards India is the positive assessment & projection of Indian economy by global bodies including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) & many international brokerages firms.

In latest endorsement of India’s growing economic might, a top executive of JP Morgan today said that Indian economy is all set to double in less than a decade on back of exponential rise in its exports & manufacturing capability.

JP Morgan MD’s assessment of India

James Sullivan, Managing Director, Asia Pacific Equity Research at JPMorgan told CNBC-TV18 that the size of the Indian economy would double to $7 trillion by 2030. He also said that the India would become third largest economy in next few years.

And, he attributed this jump in growth trajectory to jump in India’s exports.

“We are seeing more than doubling of Indian exports from just under $500 billion today to over $1 trillion,” Sullivan told the TV channel.

Currently, India is the fifth largest economy in the world and its GDP stands at $3,730 billion (close to 3.7 trillion).

JPMorgan’s bold forecast: India to become 3rd largest economy by 2027, reach $7 trillion by 2030https://t.co/wXfsjUnzxD

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— PMO India (@PMOIndia) October 18, 2023

Sullivan also said the below-average earnings revision in China, a trend not seen since 2005, suggests that China may be at an inflexion point in its economic trajectory.

Factors driving India’s rapid growth

James Sullivan sees India’s robust manufacturing capability as the biggest contributor in driving this growth and jump in GDP. He says that manufacturing contribution is likely to rise from 17% to 25% and it will be propped up with considerable spike in exports.

“From a longer-term perspective, we see massive changes in the overall structure of the Indian economy, which present clear opportunities for sector selection within what we think will be a strong overall market,” he told the leading portal.

India aiming for $5 trillion economy

Notably, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reiterated on multiple occasions that India is headed towards $ 5 trillion economy and will sooner achieve this target. At recently held G20 & BRICS Summit, PM Modi told the world community that the country was taking rapid strides due to big-ticket reforms and also improved ratings in Ease of doing business.

Reforms taken up in mission mode, red tape being replaced with red capet welcome for industrialists and conversion of failures & disasters into opportunity have gone a long way in realizing this ambitious target.

World Bank & IMF projection of India’s GDP growth

A look at GDP & growth projection of India shows that it’s not a one-off case. Overall, all the rating agencies have painted a bright picture of India and all of them see the country marching ahead on a growth trajectory.

The World Bank, in its growth projection for India, said that the country was pegged to grow at 6.3% for the FY 2024. S&P Ratings has pegged India’s growth estimates at 6% for the year.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its October assessment, projected India’s GDP growth to 6.3% (revised from 6.1%).

Earlier this month, Barclay’s said in its report that India was looking at growth rate of 8% and looking to overtake China soon.