Parliament showdown: Despite Opposition unity, govt to sail through easily; here is the numbers game

New Delhi: Since the beginning of Monsoon Session on July 20, Parliament has become a battleground with Opposition parties cornering the Centre on issues ranging from Manipur horror to Delhi ordinance.

While the ruling BJP and united Opposition traded barbs & blows, the clamour for Prime Minister’s reply on the issue only got more shriller. In a bid to pin down the ruling party, the INDIA bloc brought No-confidence motion against Modi govt.

The motion is likely to be debated from Aug 8 to Aug 10 and PM Modi giving a reply on Aug 10, followed by voting . But, it is likely to turn out into a big disappointment & embarrassment for the Opposition than the government.

A leading portal, in its analysis of number crunching, has found that Modi govt may defeat the motion by even greater margin than in 2018. Remember, the Opposition had brought no-confidence motion against Modi govt but got miserably defeated by 325-126 votes. This time, the margin may be higher.

Delhi Services Bill, brought in to replace the Ordinance is expected to see a clear passage despite Kejriwal’s frantic & desperate outreach to the INDIA bloc.

Will margin be higher than 2018?

In 2018, Prime Minister gave 91-minute reply to Opposition’s No-Trust vote and defeated it decisively with 325 votes being casted in favour of the then Modi dispensation. This time, with BJP alone sitting on 301 seats, the number may go even higher.

BJP has its own 301 sitting MPs in the Lok Sabha. By counting its allies together, the number reaches a whopping 332. With a 543-member House, the half way mark or magic number lies at 272.

There are 3 Independent MPs, who are more likely to align with the govt. The recent upheaval in Maharashtra brought Ajit faction to the NDA fold, thus adding its MPs to the numbers.

Naveen Patnaik-led BJP has already promised support to govt on Delhi ordinance and presumably would support it in the No-Trust vote also. YSR Congress of Jagan Reddy has shown its inclination to support the Centre. BJD has 12 MPs while YSRCP has 22 members in the Lok Sabha. This would take the tally to a total of 366.

If Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP also mulls voting in favour of NDA, it would take the tally to 369, as he has 3 MPs in the House.

Therefore, it would be nothing but a cakewalk for the Modi government in the Lower House and also a record-setting one.

In the Rajya Sabha, the BJP along with its allies have a strength of 105 MPs. The BJP is expecting support of all 5 nominated lawmakers – including Gulam Ali, Mahesh Jethmalani, Sonal Mansingh, Ram Shakal and Rakesh Sinha. That would take the figure to 110.

Expecting that the BJD & YSRCR would back BJP, they will add 18 more MPs in the tally as they have 9 members each. Then there are 2 Independent MPs, if they also support the government, the tally would easily cross 130 mark, thus paving the way for its easy victory. The half way mark in the Upper House is 123.