Tauktae likely to intensify into ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ in next 24 hrs: IMD

New Delhi: Cyclone ‘Tauktae’ is very likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm within the next 24 hours, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday.

It added that it is very likely to cross the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva in Bhavnagar district around early morning of May 18.

IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra informed that heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected to occur in coastal areas of Gujarat on May 17 and May 18. Meanwhile, some places may experience extremely heavy rainfall.

At the time of landfall, winds speed is expected to be 155-165 kmph gusting to 145 kmph, said the Mohapatra.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

(i)         Rainfall: 

• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th.
• South Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over south Konkan & Goa and adjoining Ghat areas on 16^th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• North Konkan: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and 17^th May.
• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from today afternoon, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Diu and southern most Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu & south Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 18^th.
• Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18^th & heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on 19^th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 130–140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea becoming 145-155 kmph gusting to 170 kmph from 16^th May mid-night.
• Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off south Maharashtra –Goa and adjoining Karnataka coasts on 16^th, 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast on 16^th. It is likely to become 65- 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast from 17^th till 18^th morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts from 16th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar) and 100 -120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmadabad, Botad, Surendranagar, 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi districts of Gujarat from early hours of 18th. Gale winds speed reaching 70-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Kheda districts from 17^th mid-night till 18^th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to Phenomenal on 16^th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17^th & 18^th May.
• Sea conditions will be very rough to High along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts on 16^th May and along & off north Maharashtra coast on 17^th Morning. It is very likely to be very rough to High along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 17^th midnight.

(iv) Storm surge warning

Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:

about 3 m over Junagarh,1-2.5 m over Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Anand, Surat  and about 0.5 -1m over Devbhoomi Dwarka , Jamnagar, Porbandar, Kutch the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.(Details given in Annexure-I).

(v)        Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Karnataka-Goa–Maharashtra coasts.
• Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17^th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast till 17^th Morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18^th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops,. Blowing down of bushy trees.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

(vi) (B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested:

• Mobilise evacuation in vulnerable areas.
• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.