New Delhi: Amid contrasting exit poll figures by various pollsters, the Lokniti-CSDS polling agency in its survey, found two big states Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan reposing their faith in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Lokniti-CSDS, one of the oldest & most reputed polling agency, released its vote share projections for respective parties in all states on its X timeline.
The post poll analysis of CSDS shows BJP well in command in Madhya Pradesh despite strong anti-incumbency wave while Congress failing to keep hold of Rajasthan despite Gehlot’s populist schemes.
In the CSDS numbers, the BJP is seen emerging as the single largest party in Madhya Pradesh as well as Rajasthan.
Estimate from @LoknitiCSDS Post Poll in MP
Total sample 3050
Location 120
AC 30
Sample profile Women 50%, Muslim 7%, Urban 28% Dalit 16%, ST 20%
Vote share
Cong 41%
BJP 43%
BSP 5%
Others 12%
Margin of error Cong 1.7%, BJP 1.7%, BSP 0.7%, oth 1.1%
Overall margin of error 1.4%— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) December 2, 2023
Estimate from @LoknitiCSDS Post Poll in Rajasthan
Total sample 3018
Location 120
AC 30
Sample profile Women 44%, Muslim 9%, Urban 31% Dalit 15%, ST 17%
Vote share
Cong 40%
BJP 43%
BSP 4%
Others 13%
Margin of error Cong 1.7%, BJP 1.7%, BSP 0.6%, oth 1.1%
Overall error 1.4%— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) December 2, 2023
The party is seen fetching 43% vote share in each state, leaving behind its closest rival Congress by a margin of at least 2-3%. Translating this into numbers, the BJP is likely to ride to power easily and looks well in command to form government, provided any post-poll tie-up doesn’t hinder its prospects.
For Telangana, the CSDS post poll survey prediction concurs with most of the polling agencies. It has forecasted ‘dislodging’ of KCR-led BRS government as Congress is seen taking a good lead of 38% as compared to its closest rival BRS at 34%.
Estimate from @LoknitiCSDS Post Poll in Telangana
Total sample 3097
Location 120
AC 30
Sample profile Women 46%, Muslim 13%, Urban 49% Dalit 16%, ST 11%
Vote share
Cong 38%
BRS 34%
BJP 11%
AIMIM 3%
Others 14%
Margin of error Cong 1.7%, BRS 1.6%, BJP 1.1%, oth 1.2%
Overall 1.2%— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) December 2, 2023
Its projection for Chhattisgarh too, remains in line with what other pollsters have forecasted. The CSDS survey sees Congress bagging 42% vote share while BJP failing to catch up with 38% vote share.
Estimate from @LoknitiCSDS Post Poll in Chhattisgarh
Total sample 2614
Location 100
AC 25
Sample profile Women 48%, Muslim 3%, Urban 25% Dalit 13%, ST 23%
Vote share
Cong 42%
BJP 38%
BSP+GGP 5%
Others 15%
Margin of error Cong 1.8%, BJP 1.8%, BSP+ 0.8%, oth 1.3%
Overall 1.5%— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) December 2, 2023
The Lokniti-CSDS says that a margin error of about 1.5% could be expected in its post poll analysis. The agency covered a moderate sample of over 3000 electorate spread over more than 100 locations.
For deriving its exit poll numbers, the agency has relied heavily on women voters along with Urban & Dalit voters. In all the states, the agency’s sample size comprised of close to 50% women voters while SC/ST/Urban & poor accounted for the rest.
