- BJP’s women welfare schemes look to be yielding rich dividends, party leads by almost 20% among women voters
- BJP leads among OBCs, Congress marginally ahead among SCs, 10% lead among STs, expected
to continue leading among minorities. - CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan continues to be the most popular face of the state as 41% of the
respondents rated his performance as excellent. - 35,268 samples, survey carried out from October 3 to October 30, 2023.
A survey carried out by Pollsters India, a leading public opinion tracking company on Madhya Pradesh elections, reveals that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to retain power in Madhya Pradesh through its welfare measures, combined with the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan which gives the party almost 5% edge over the Congress.
The BJP is getting into the decisive phase of the election with a significant lead and the Congress would have to cover a fair distance as we get into the final 2 weeks of the campaign. Voting intention data indicates that women are expected to be the primary reason for BJP’s performance in the ensuing elections as the BJP is getting much stronger support from women, across all sections.
The BJP is gaining 3.1% votes from the 2018 Vidhan Sabha election, reaching a vote share of 44.7%, while the Congress is expected to come down by 2.1%, getting a vote share of 39.4%. The BJP, which has been in power in the state for almost 19 years, with the exception of 15 months when Congress leader Kamal Nath was the Chief Minister, seemed to have benefited from its series of welfare schemes targeted specifically.
31% of the respondents said that these schemes were expected to be a game-changer, 34% indicated that it would have some impact on the election while 1/3rd of the respondents of this survey indicated that these schemes would have no impact on the election.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to be performing at almost the same levels as the 2013 Vidhan Sabha elections. It is, however, expected to get fewer seats in 2023 because the smaller parties are expected to get fewer votes in 2023 than they did in 2013. The Congress might have trouble catching up unless there is a significant late swing in favor of the party in the last two weeks of the campaign. Infighting within the Congress and lack of coordination between former Chief Ministers Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh is adding to the problems of the Congress.
Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, who took over the state in November 2005, continues to be going strong two decades later and remains the most popular leader of the state, maintaining a comfortable lead over former Congress
Chief Minister Kamal Nath. Though there is some fatigue factor against Shivraj, there is little doubt that he remains the most popular face of the state.
Shivraj Singh Chauhan, who returned to power in March 2020 after a 15-month Congress rule, continues to deliver votes for the BJP as 41% of the respondents rated his performance as excellent while 36% rated his work as satisfactory. 21% of the respondents stated that his performance was extremely poor. In all, the CM continues to deliver votes to the party. Shivraj continues to be seen positively by the people as 44% of the respondents stated that his tenure as the CM has been the best while 21% stated that former Chief Minister Kamal Nath had performed better. 5% of the respondents stated that Uma Bharti performed the best during her short 1-year stint while 3% rated that Digvijay Singh performed the best as CM.
The performance of Prime Minister Modi and the Union Government continues to add to the advantage of the of the ruling BJP as 54% of the respondents stated that the performance of the Prime Minister was excellent while 35% said his
performance was satisfactory. Only 22 of the respondents stated that they were not satisfied with the performance of the Prime Minister.
Data indicates that while PM Modi continues to drive the BJP’s popularity and Chief Minister too remains fairly popular, the BJP may have to be content with a fairly stiff anti-incumbency against the sitting MLAs. The survey indicated that 41% of the respondents said they would want to change the sitting MLA while only 29% wanted to change the MLA. 28% of the respondents have not yet made up their minds if they would want to change or retain the MLA.
The BJP, however, also has its share of problems in the state as rising prices of essential commodities continue to be the biggest problem for the state. In additional to this, unemployment continues to be another major problem in the state’s local development and farmers’ issues are also other issues that could cause some problems for the BJP. The BJP has tried to make a dent on the inflation issue by offering LPG cylinders at Rs 450 through the Ladli Behna Yojna but it remains to be seen if it would dilute the inflation issue, as it came very close to the election. For one, the BJP in Madhya Pradesh has been able to sting out of most welfare promises made by.
The regional picture is of great importance in the state. BJP is gaining votes and seats in Chambal, Mahakaushal and the tribal belt of Malwa. It is expected to lose some seats in the Malwa Uttar and Vindhya regions of the state, leading to a 15 seat jump for the BJP and a 17-seat decline for the Congress, over the 2018 Vidhan Sabha election when the Congress had registered a marginal victory with 114 of the 230 seats.
Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on Pollsters Indias’ survey, carried out between October 3 to October 30 and covered 60 Vidhan Sabha segments of the state. Total of 24,023 samples were collected on the ground while 12,2345 samples were collected via telephonic interviews with respondents. Due care was taken to ensure that the sample remains representative of the social and demographic patterns of the state. The expected margin of error is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level while the confidence interval is 95%.
About Pollsters India
Pollsters India is India’s fastest-growing data intelligence consulting agency, which believes in powering data-driven decision-making. The company has a pan-India presence and has touched households in almost all states & UT’s. It counts some of India’s pioneer business groups, industry bodies, social organizations and public associations in its clientele and offers a research-based data services, including consumer satisfaction and market research survey. For more information write us on [email protected].
