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Cricket WC 2023: A low-down on winning probablities of each team, where does Team India stand?

The BBC Sport worked in collaboration with data analysts CricViz to churn out winning percentage of each participating team.





New Delhi: The countdown for Cricket World Cup 2023 has begun and the first match of tournament will see defending champions England locking horns with Pakistan on October 5, in the recently constructed Narendra Modi Stadium, Gujarat.

As the 10 competing teams get ready to fight it out for the coveted trophy, here is a lowdown on the winning probability of each team, based on their performance in previous cricket series & tournaments.

The BBC Sport worked in collaboration with data analysts CricViz to churn out winning percentage of each participating team.

Based on its analysis, we break down the winning probability of each team and why Team India stands at top of the table.

1) India – Winning chances @ 21.9%

Team India takes the numero uno position here, not just in terms of playing matches but also in the comparative analysis of winning probability.

Since the 2019 Cricket World Cup, the Men in Blue have played 66 matches, which is highest among all. In past couple of years, they have shown strong batting display, having maintained run rate of 5.76 (just less than England’s 6.01). Virat Kohli’s clinical form after the Covid phase has been instrumental in putting the team on a long pedestal.

2) England – Winning chance @ 17.3%

The defending champions are among the World Cup favourites, this year too. The team lags behind some of its peers in batting department but occupies the top slot in picking catches. It has a catch success rate of 84% in ODIs. All rounder Ben Stokes’ charismatic performance has put the team in top league of contenders.

3) Australia – Winning chances @ 15.6%

The Down Under have been five-times World Cup champions. This year, the Aussies would be eying the title victory on back of its strong batting line-up till eight down.

The squad is full of all-rounders and is also strong on pace & spin bowling. Glen Maxwell, the most bankable player has a strike-rate of 180 since last World Cup. His off-spin would also be watched for the magic that it may unfold.

4) South Africa – Winning chances @ 14.1%

South Africa has a moderate winning probability of 14.1%. Often called the ‘Chokers’ for ruining their World Cup chances in final moments, the team hasn’t been in sublime form but they do have the ability & agility to outpace the best of teams. Heinrich Klaasen is the star player of team, who will draw all the attention.

5) Pakistan – Winning chances @ 11.6%

Pakistan relies a lot of its fast pacers. Off late, the Men in Green has been lagging in big hitters but its fast bowlers have got the world’s attention.
Shaheen Shah Afridi & Haris Rauf, the young & incisive bowlers of Pak team have the ability to cut through any rival team.

In batting department, Babar Azam has fast emerged as potent threat for rival team while Mohammed Rizwan has played good second fiddle. Shaheen’s potency with the new ball and Rauf’s razor-sharp bowling in the death overs gives the team an edge.

6) Sri Lanka – Winning chances @ 6.8%

Sri Lanka though having played second largest number of matches since the last World Cup in 2019, fares poorly in the pyramid. The team has got dangerous spin attack in form of twin duo, Maheesh Theekshana and Dunith Wellalage.

The team has struggled in batting department. It has got a run-rate of 7.21 runs/overs in last 10 overs of the game, which is just above Afghanistan’s record.

7) New Zealand – Winning chances @ 8.5%

The Kiwis maintain a moderate track record on the Indian soil. Since 2010, they have played many matches in India and won 29% of the ODIs.

Overall, the team is a good mix of batters & bowlers but the team has suffered in death overs.

Trent Boult, the left-arm seamer is team’s big bet as he took 39 wickets in last 2 World Cups. Australian Mitchell Starc is the top wicket keeper in 2 WCs with 49 wickets in his kitty.

8) Bangladesh – Winning chances @ 2.9%

Bangladesh, dubbed as minnows of the World Cup, shocked a couple of big teams and hopes to recreate the magic this time too. The team has a good home track record but fails to find footing when on foreign shores. Their weak point in this World Cup would be their less outing on Indian pitches. They have played only 9 ODIs on India soil, so far.

Skipper Shakib Al-Hasan will be the player to watch out for. He amassed more than 600 runs in the 2019 World Cup, and ranked just next to big hitters Rohit Sharma & David Warner.

9) Afghanistan – Winning chances @ 1.3%

Afghanistan, a much newer team in the World’s biggest cricketing extravaganza will not gain much attention, though a couple of its players do have created a sensation on the field.

The team has moderately average bowling & batting record but its pacer Rashid Khan has emerged as a big name. Rashid has the distinction of scalping 139 wickets since his debut in IPL in 2017.

10) Netherlands – Winning chances @ 0%

Netherlands would be the newest team in the World Cup 2023, apparently making up for the loss of West Indies. However, in terms of competitive cricket, they are yet to prove their mettle. The team flaunted its skills & talent in the World Cup qualifiers while all rounder Bas de Leede achieved new benchmarks.