New Delhi: Assembly elections are just months away in 5 states namely Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. Electioneering has also begun in couple of these states, owing to direct combat between 2 leading parties/factions. ABP news along with CVoter conducted a survey in 1st week of November to gauge the mood of electorate and how they viewed the incumbent government in their states and which side their priorities will sway while electing the new govenrment.
Goa: BJP seen retaining state, AAP likely to open account
Bharatiya Janata Party, the current ruling party in Goa and Manipur are likely to remain in power in both the states.
According to ABP-CVoter Survey, BJP is likely to fetch 19-23 seats in 40-member Goa Assembly while Congress is expected to get 2 to 6 seats. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is seen making inroads in the state and also getting a substantial 3 to 7 seats.
BJP is projected to get 37.5% vote share, followed by AAP at 23.6% and Congress at 18.6%.
In Goa, BJP will be contesting its first Assembly election after the death of former Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, one of the prominent leaders of the party in the state. BJP is currently facing challenges from Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress along with Congress.
Manipur: BJP-led alliance likely to win majority
ABP News along with CVoter predicts a satisfactory win for BJP in Manipur. As per the survey, in the 60-member Manipur Assembly, BJP-led alliance is likely to win 25 to 29 seats, Congress 20 to 24 seats, Naga People’s Front (NPF) 4 to 8 seats, and others 3 to 7 seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP will witness 38.7% which will result in an increase of 2.4% compared to 2017. Congress will undergo a decline in its vote share from 35.1% in 2017 to 33.1% in 2022 elections.
BJP’s win in Manipur will signal the geographic diversity of the party’s ability to overcome anti-incumbency across many regions of India.
AAP seen emerging as largest party in Punjab
Amid the ongoing farmers protest over 3 farm laws, Punjab is going to polls in early 2022. According to the ABP-CVoter survey, Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is most likely to emerge as the single-largest party in Punjab.
According to Survey, AAP is projected to win 47-53 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly, followed by ruling Congress (42-50 seats) and Shiromani Akali Dal falling to paltry 16-24 seats.
BJP is seen doing its worst in the Punjab Assembly Elections. Reason behind poor show is on expected lines, strong opposition to farm laws by Punjab farmers and also breaking up of alliance with SAD.
The survey, conducted in early November 2021, projects that the vote share and number of seats of AAP will increase in Punjab in comparison to the last elections held in 2017.
In terms of vote share, AAP is likely to fetch a whopping 36.5% in upcoming elections, as compared to 23.7% in 2017.
Congress’ vote share is seen dropping from 38.5 per cent in 2017 to 34.9 per cent in 2022.
